by Satoshi Yanaizu

2020 marks the 75th anniversary of the dropping of the atomic bombings, a milestone for nuclear disarmament. Nevertheless, the situation surrounding nuclear weapons has never been more severe since the end of the Cold War. Nuclear armed states and other major powers have shown passive and retreating attitudes toward their commitment to the existing nuclear disarmament frameworks: the U.S. withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), Iran’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was partially abrogated, negotiations between the United States and North Korea broke down, and Middle Eastern countries implied the possibility of developing their own nuclear weapons. Is it possible to turn back the tide once again? 2020 will no doubt be a crucial year.

Trust in bilateral and multilateral mechanisms that have underpinned nuclear disarmament, such as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), can broadly be defined as an international public good. It is sustained by each country’s compliance and support. As argued by Charles P. Kindleberger, when a hegemon initiates multilateral rulemaking, the international system stabilizes: indeed, nuclear disarmament in the post-Cold War era owes much to U.S. leadership. However, as the U.S. seems less willing to lead global cooperation in this increasingly multipolar world, it is vital for each country to share the burden in continuing to build trust towards existing nuclear disarmament frameworks without relying solely on the United States.

Japan must utilize its experience of being the only country suffering from the atomic bombings in wartime as a diplomatic resource and lead the way towards achieving a world without nuclear weapons. One of the issues which demand Japan’s agency is its approach towards the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The Government of Japan should recognize the value of the new approach that the TPNW represents, that is, emphasizing the inhumanity of nuclear weapons and trying to raise the political cost of possessing such weapons. Although reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella may keep Japan from ratifying the treaty for the time being, engagement is possible through such means as, for example, joining the Meeting of States Parties as an observer. There would be no conflict between this and the U.S.-Japan security system as well as the NPT. This would rather serve as an effective form of pressure to break through the stagnation that has beset the existing nuclear disarmament framework. In order for Japan to bridge the gap between stakeholders in this troubled time, its diplomacy requires the flexibility: Japan should work on a pragmatic approach towards the immediate security situation together with a farsighted strategy that looks to the total abolition of nuclear weapons as a long-term goal.