Preface and Acknowledgements
Hiroshima Report 2022: Evaluation of Achievement in Nuclear Disarmament, Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Security in 2021 (hereinafter referred to as “Hiroshima Report 2022”) is a result of the “Hiroshima Report Publication Project,” 1 commissioned by the Hiroshima Organization for Global Peace (HOPe) to the Center for Disarmament, Science and Technology (CDAST), the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA). As with the previous reports issued since 2013, the Hiroshima Report 2022 is published in both Japanese and English.
The prospect of total elimination of nuclear weapons remains distant at best. Even more worrying, the circumstances surrounding nuclear weapons are ever becoming more and more complex. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) entered into force in January 2021, and the five-year extension of the U.S.-Russian New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) was agreed upon the following month. However, the five nuclear-weapon states (NWS) under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States—and other nuclear-armed states—India, Israel and Pakistan—as well as North Korea continue to perceive their nuclear weapons as indispensable components of their national security. They also have taken measures with a view to sustaining nuclear deterrence for a longer period, such as modernization of nuclear forces and development of new delivery vehicles. There were few concrete efforts by the nuclear-armed states toward agreeing on or implementing further nuclear disarmament. Non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS) allied with NWS did not take measures to decrease their reliance on extended nuclear deterrence, either.
Meanwhile, the status and prospects regarding nuclear non-proliferation are gloomy as well. North Korea has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of abandoning its nuclear weapons and continues to aggressively develop and test various ground-launched missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) capable of carrying nuclear warheads, striving to advance its nuclear forces. Regarding the Iran nuclear issue, as countermeasures to the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and subsequent imposition of sanctions, Iran has steadily withdrawn from its own obligations under the deal, and increased its stockpile of enriched uranium as well as the level of enrichment far beyond the limits set by the deal. Negotiations for the reviving the JCPOA also failed to make progress.
The situation surrounding nuclear security also afford us little cause for optimism. The threat of drone sabotage and cyber-attacks targeting nuclear facilities is increasing, with multiple incidents occurring in 2021. Although the progress has been seen to some extent in areas such as the level of national nuclear security measures, strengthening of international assistance, and participation in nuclear security-related treaties, the priority of efforts to strengthen nuclear security among the international community is not what it once was. As for stocks of weapon-usable nuclear material in the world, while those of civilian Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) have been decreasing, those of civilian separated plutonium continues to increase. Furthermore, here in Japan, the unauthorized use of IDs by operating staff at the TEPCO Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station have made us aware of the need to strengthen measures against insider threats.
The Hiroshima Report seeks to assist the movement toward the abolition of nuclear weapons, firstly, by clarifying the current status of issues and efforts surrounding nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and nuclear security. In doing so, it aims to encourage increased debate on these issues among policymakers, experts both within and outside governments, and civil society. Furthermore, by issuing the “Report” and the “Evaluation” from Hiroshima, where a nuclear weapon was once used, it endeavors to help focus attention and promote further actions across various fields toward the realization of a world without nuclear weapons.
The Research Committee was established to conduct this project, namely producing the “Report” and the “Evaluation.” This Committee met once within the Japanese fiscal year 2021 to discuss its content. The members of the Research Committee are as follows:
Chairperson and Project Coordinator
Hirofumi Tosaki (Director, CDAST, JIIA)
Nobumasa Akiyama (Professor, Hitotsubashi University)
Kazuko Hikawa (Professor, Osaka Jogakuin University)
Junko Horibe (Associated Professor, Nagoya University of Foreign Studies)
Akira Kawasaki (Executive Committee Member, Peace Boat)
Masahiro Kikuchi (Former Board Member, Nuclear Material Control Center)
Mitsuru Kurosawa (Professor Emeritus, Osaka University)
Kazumi Mizumoto (Professor, Hiroshima Peace Institute, Hiroshima City University)
Michiru Nishida (Professor, Nagasaki University)
Hiroshi Tamai (Member, Institute of Nuclear Materials Management (INMM) Japan Chapter)
The Research Committee appreciates the comments and advice to the “Report” given by the following experts:
Ambassador Nobuyasu Abe (Former UN Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs and former Commissioner of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission) Mr. Mark Fitzpatrick (Former Executive Director of the Americas Office and head of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Program, International Institute for Strategic Studies)
Professor Tatsujiro Suzuki (Vice Director and Professor, Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University)
In this edition, experts posted columns on nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and nuclear security issues.2
The views or opinions expressed in the “Report,” “Evaluation” and “Columns” are those of the members of the Research Committee or respective authors, and do not necessarily represent the view of the HOPe, the Hiroshima Prefecture, the JIIA, or the organizations to which they belong. Not all of the members necessarily agree on all of the points discussed.3
1 This project has been conducted as part of the “Hiroshima for Global Peace” Plan launched by Hiroshima Prefecture in 2011.
2 The views or opinions expressed in the columns are those of the respective authors, and do not represent the view of the HOPe, the Hiroshima Prefecture, the JIIA, or the organizations to which they belong.
3 The Research Committee appreciates the efforts of Hideo Asano, Rena Harada and Yuki Moritani in assisting to edit the Hiroshima Report.