There are few signs of improvement in the situation surrounding nuclear issues; rather, the situation appears to be in a downward spiral. The United States, which had been criticizing Russia’s violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, finally announced its withdrawal from the treaty in February 2019. Six months later, on August 2, the U.S. formally followed through, prompting Russia to declare the INF Treaty a thing of history. The United States also signaled disinterest in extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) beyond its current expiration date of February 5, 2021, while Russia offered to do so. The United States is increasingly arguing that not just the United States and Russia but also China should participate in a nuclear arms control process. However, China has repeatedly argued that it would not join such a process without further reduction of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, and the U.S. has made little effort to initiate nuclear arms control talks to engage both China and Russia.

Meanwhile, all nuclear-weapon/armed states continue to modernize their nuclear forces. In particular, Russia and China have been actively promoting thedevelopment and deployment of various new delivery vehicles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. As for multilateral nuclear arms control, no indication could be seen that the impasses over the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) which has not entered into force, and a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) whose negotiation has yet to be started are headed for resolution. The number of signatories and ratifying countries of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which was opened for signature on September 20, 2017, is steadily increasing, and its entry into force will be realized in the near future. However, nuclear-weapon/armed states and their allies continue to clearly state that they do not intend to sign the TPNW.

Regarding nuclear non-proliferation, North Korea neither conducted nuclear and missile tests nor threatened uses of nuclear weapons in 2019, as in the previous year. However, contrary to expectations, no agreement was reached at the US-North Korean summit meeting in February, and no progress has been made toward resolving the North Korean nuclear issue since then. North Korea has not made a strategic decision to abandon its nuclear arsenal. It appeared likely to continue its development of nuclear weapons and missiles, and at year’s end it declared an end to its two-year moratorium on nuclear and long- range missile testing. Furthermore, North Korea expanded its circumvention of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. Meanwhile, the Iranian nuclear issue became more tense, as Iran, after showing patience for a year after the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, began in the latter half of 2019 to steady withdraw from its own obligations under the deal. By year’s end, the deal was near death, as Iran had exceeded the limits on the amount of low enriched uranium allowed to be stockpiled as well as the level of enrichment, the number of operating centrifuges and the pace of development of more capable centrifuges. Iran continued the verification requirements of the JCPOA, however, and said its steps on exceeding the limits could be reversed if the US renewed waivers of sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.