Preface and Acknowledgements
This report, Hiroshima Report 2021: Evaluation of Achievement in Nuclear Disarmament, Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Security in 2020 (hereinafter referred to as “Hiroshima Report 2021”) is an outcome of the “Hiroshima Report Publication Project,” 1 commissioned by Hiroshima Prefecture to the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA). As with the previous reports issued since 2013, the Hiroshima Report 2021 is published in both Japanese and English.
The prospect of eliminating nuclear weapons is still distant at best. Even more worrying, the circumstances surrounding nuclear weapons are becoming more and more complex. The five nuclear-weapon states (NWS) under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States—and other nuclear-armed states—India, Israel and Pakistan—as well as North Korea continue to perceive their nuclear weapons as indispensable components of their national security, and have not made any definite move toward renouncing their nuclear arsenals. Instead, they have taken measures with a view to sustaining nuclear deterrence for a longer period, such as modernization of nuclear forces and development of new delivery vehicles. Following the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) in 2019, the issue of extending the U.S.-Russian New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which is set to expire in February 2021, was also not resolved by the end of 2020. At the initiative of non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS) which have grown increasingly frustrated over such a situation, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) was adopted in July 2017. As the number of ratifying countries reached 50 on October 24, 2020, the TPNW was to enter into force on January 22, 2021. However, nuclear-armed states and NNWS allied with them (nuclear umbrella states) have opposed the treaty, and refused to sign it.
Meanwhile, the status and prospects regarding nuclear non-proliferation are also gloomy. Regarding the North Korean nuclear issue, the U.S.-North Korean summits in 2018 and 2019 failed to achieve any progress toward denuclearization. Pyongyang has not made a strategic decision to dismantle its nuclear weapons; rather, at the end of 2019, it announced an end to the moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and long-range missile. While it did not test them in 2020, North Korea featured new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) in a military parade held in October 2020. Regarding the Iran nuclear issue, as countermeasures to the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and subsequent imposition of sanctions, Iran has steadily withdrawn from its own obligations under the deal since the summer of 2019, including by increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium far beyond the limits of the deal.
With respect to nuclear security, a certain degree of progress has been made in the area of national efforts to achieve a higher standard of implementation measures. Progress has also been made, in States’ accession to nuclear security-related conventions. As cyberattacks, insider threats, and possible threats posed by technological innovation are increasingly recognized, more countries are gradually making focused efforts to deal with such threats. Yet, not only major countries using nuclear energy, but also all other countries need to ensure effective and continuous nuclear security efforts as the threat of nuclear terrorism is real.
The Hiroshima Report attempts to help the movement toward the abolition of nuclear weapons, firstly, by clarifying the current status of the issues and efforts surrounding nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and nuclear security. In doing so, it aims to encourage increased debate on these issues among policymakers, experts both within and outside governments, and civil society. Furthermore, by issuing the “Report” and the “Evaluation” from Hiroshima, where a nuclear weapon was once used, it aims to help focus attention and promote further actions across various fields toward the realization of a world without nuclear weapons.
The Research Committee was established to conduct this project, namely producing the “Report” and the “Evaluation.” This Committee met once within the Japanese fiscal year 2020 to discuss its content. The members of the Research Committee are as follows:
Tomiko Ichikawa (Acting Director, Center for Disarmament, Science and Technology (CDAST), JIIA)
Nobumasa Akiyama (Professor, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University)
Kazuko Hikawa (Professor, Osaka Jogakuin College)
Junko Horibe (Associated Professor, Nagoya University of Foreign Studies)
Akira Kawasaki (Executive Committee Member, Peace Boat)
Masahiro Kikuchi (Former Board Member, Nuclear Material Control Center)
Mitsuru Kurosawa (Professor Emeritus, Osaka University)
Kazumi Mizumoto (Professor, Hiroshima Peace Institute, Hiroshima City
Hiroshi Tamai (Senior Expert, Integrated Support Center for Nuclear
Nonproliferation and Nuclear Security, Japan Atomic Energy Agency)
Research Member and Project Coordinator
Hirofumi Tosaki (Senior Research Fellow, CDAST, JIIA)
The Research Committee appreciates the comments and advice to the “Report” given by the following experts:
Ambassador Nobuyasu Abe (Former UN Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs and former Commissioner of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission)
Mr. Mark Fitzpatrick (Former Executive Director of the Americas Office and head of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Program, International Institute for
Professor John Simpson (Emeritus Professor of International Relations, University of Southampton)
Professor Tatsujiro Suzuki (Vice Director and Professor, Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University)
In this edition, experts posted columns on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation issues.2
The views or opinions expressed in the “Report,” “Evaluation” and “Columns” are those of the members of the Research Committee or respective authors, and do not necessarily represent the view of the Hiroshima Prefecture, the JIIA, or the organizations to which they belong. Not all of the members necessarily agree on all of the points discussed.3
1 This project has been conducted as part of the “Hiroshima for Global Peace” Plan launched by Hiroshima Prefecture in 2011.
2 The views or opinions expressed in the columns are those of the respective authors, and do not represent the view of the Hiroshima Prefecture, the JIIA, or the organizations to which they belong.
3 The Research Committee appreciates Yuya Kato, Rena Harada and Yuki Moritani for assisting to edit the Hiroshima Report as well as translating the posted columns.