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Hiroshima for Global Peace

Hiroshima Report 20241. China ■Nuclear-Weapon State

Nuclear Disarmament 6.3 Points Full Points 109 5.8%
Change compared to the Hiroshima Report 2023  -5.2

China is the only NWS that has not implemented substantial nuclear disarmament measures, and insists that its participation in the nuclear weapons reduction process is premature. It voted against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution on nuclear disarmament proposed by Japan. It has promoted active modernization programs for its nuclear forces (particularly, ICBMs and SLBMs). It is estimated to possess 410 nuclear warheads, and the pace of increase has been accelerating. It has been speculated that China would possess more than 1,000 operational nuclear weapons in the next decade. China has not signed the TPNW. It has not yet ratified the CTBT. It voted against the UNGA resolution on an FMCT. The country has not declared a moratorium on production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, and concerns have been raised about the possibility of civilian nuclear facilities being used for nuclear weapons purposes. It has declared no first use of nuclear weapons and the unconditional negative security assurance; however, there are also concerns that it is increasing the role of nuclear weapons in national security, including through changes in such policies. While arguing the importance of transparency in intention, China has maintained the least transparency about nuclear weapon capabilities among the NWS.

Nuclear Non-Proliferation 27 Points Full Points 47 57.4%
Change compared to the Hiroshima Report 2023  -2
China acceded to the IAEA Additional Protocol, in which no provision for complementary access visits is stipulated. It opposes the acquisition of nuclear submarines by Australia under the AUKUS. The country repeatedly defended North Korea’s nuclear and missile activities at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Although China has stated that it has been engaged in the implementation of sanction measures vis-à-vis North Korea under the UNSCRs, violations on sanction measures also have been pointed out. China has also been criticized for exporting two nuclear power reactors to Pakistan, which may constitute a violation of the NSG guidelines. Since 2018, China has not submitted a report to the IAEA based on the Guidelines for the Management of Plutonium.
Nuclear Security 18 Points Full Points 38 47.4%
Change compared to the Hiroshima Report 2023  0
China has ratified all nuclear security-related conventions; and has established a national implementation system for A/CPPNM. It is promoting capacity building through increased investment in nuclear security-related innovations. China hosted an IPPAS mission in 2017 and continues to contribute to the NSF. There is room for improvement in enhancing measures against insider threats and for cybersecurity.
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